Topic 24: Population

Population in the world is currently (2018) growing at a rate of around 1.09% per year (down from 1.12% in 2017 and 1.14% in 2016). The current average population increase is estimated (1)________83 million people per year.

Annual growth rate reached its (2)__________in the late 1960s, when it was at around 2%. The rate of increase has nearly halved since then, and will continue (3)_________in the coming years. It is estimated to reach 1% by 2023, less than 0.5% by 2052, and 0.25% in 2076 (a yearly addition of 27 million people to a population of 10.7 billion). In 2100, it should be only 0.09%, or an addition of only 10 million people to a total population of 11.2 billion.

World population will therefore continue to grow in the 21st century, but at a much slower rate (4)___________to the recent past. World population has doubled (100% increase) in 40 years from 1959 (3 billion) to 1999 (6 billion). It is now estimated that it will (5)_________another nearly 40 years to increase by another 50% to become 9 billion by 2037.

(Source: http://www.worldometers.info)

U.S. population could increase from 323 million in 2016 to as high as 447 million by 2060—or fall as low as 320 million. It depends on how many immigrants are admitted over the next four decades, according to new report from the Census Bureau.

According to the report, if current levels of immigration are maintained, the U.S. population will grow to 404 million by 2060. If immigration is cut in half, the population will rise to 376 million. If immigration increases by 50 percent, the population expands to 447 million. And if all immigration were to be halted now, the U.S. population would peak at around 332 million in 2035 and drop to 320 million in 2060. In the high-immigration scenario, the proportion of foreign-born residents would rise by 2060 to 21.6 percent of the population. If immigration is halted, the forecast shows only 4.6 percent of the population in 2060 being foreign-born. In all of the scenarios, the median age of the U.S. population rises from 37.9 to more than 40.

The report projects that the number of people identifying as “white alone”—that is, respondents who check only the white ethnicity box on census forms—will continue to rise in the main, high, and low immigration scenarios. This increase results from the Census Bureau’s expectation that the children of Hispanic immigrants will probably, like the children of Italian, Polish, Greek, and other earlier immigrant groups, choose to identify increasingly as white. But the share of the population in the white alone category will decline in each scenario, due to faster increases in the numbers of Americans in the other racial and ethnic groups. America is an ideal, not a tribe.

(Source: https://reason.com/2020/02/14/)

Ask about “the population problem” to people of a certain age, and the first and perhaps only thing that comes to mind is the “population bomb” or “population explosion.” And they would be right - for their time. In the second half of the 20th century, rapid population growth - especially but not exclusively in the developing countries - created unprecedented increases in the number of people on the earth. And this growth was accompanied by crowding, malnutrition, disease, and poverty. Indeed, for many Americans, the coming “population explosion” was, along with the Cold War, the most unsettling fact about our world.

But “population problems” have been part of American discourse for over 100 years. In the 1930s and 1940s, for instance, many observers feared that depopulation due to plummeting birth rates would cause chronic economic depression as the numbers of U.S. consumers and workers declined. In the 1920s, the U.S. “population problem” was rapid urbanization, reflected in a 1920 census count showing that for the first time more than one-half the population lived in urban areas. Rural incumbents in the House of Representatives, fearing they would be voted out of office by their new urban constituents, succeeded in blocking reapportionment of the House’s seats on the basis of the census counts as mandated by the U.S. Constitution.

The century’s first “population problem” was mass xenophobia about immigration. Beginning in 1880, wave after wave of European immigrants was creating congestion and social change at an unprecedented rate. In response to widespread anxiety and anger, Congress in 1924 passed the country’s most restrictive immigration legislation ever. Each problem was based in hard numbers. Each generated private emotions and public fears. Each suffered exaggeration and manipulation. And each commanded the attention of opinion leaders and elected officials.

(Source: https://www.prb.org/)

Vietnam’s population is ageing quickly. In 2017, more than 10 per cent of the population will be 60 and older, and in 15–20 years the elderly will account for one third of the total population. This raises concerns about healthcare, welfare and pensions for the elderly at a time when Vietnam is focusing on economic integration and requires a large labor force. So far two solutions have been proposed: to loosen the two-child policy and to increase the retirement age to 58 for women and 62 for men. By ending the two-child policy the government expects to make up for the ageing population within the next 20 years. But its effect could be creating an uncontrollable boom in the Vietnamese population. When the government loosened the two-child policy in 2015 in a trial period, in the first 6 months of 2016 the third child birth rate increased remarkably by 7.5 per cent.

Raising the retirement age has been proposed by the Ministry of Labor pending parliamentary evaluation in May 2017. While the policy is beneficial in utilizing the work experience of the elderly while creating savings in the pension budget, it also means fewer job prospects and promotion opportunities for younger generations. It is also not in the interest of all the elderly, especially the 70 per cent of Vietnam’s labor force working in manual labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and construction where working above the age of 50 can be dangerous and unproductive. Despite these drawbacks, raising the retirement age is still considered by policymakers as one of the key solutions to the ageing population problem in Vietnam. However, these are only temporary solutions.

(Adapted from http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/01/25/)

Overpopulation is an undesirable condition where the number of existing human population exceeds the carrying capacity of Earth. Overpopulation is caused by number of factors. Reduced mortality rate, better medical facilities, depletion of precious resources are few of the causes which results in overpopulation. It is possible for a sparsely populated area to become densely populated if it is not able to sustain life.

The effects of overpopulation are quite severe. The first of these is the depletion of resources. The Earth can only produce a limited amount of water and food, which is falling short of the current needs. Most of the environmental damage being seen in the last fifty odd years is because of the growing number of people on the planet. They are cutting down forests, hunting wildlife in a reckless manner, causing pollution and creating a host of problems. Those engaged in talking about overpopulation have noticed that acts of violence and aggression outside of a war zone have increased tremendously while competing for resources.

With the overuse of coal, oil and natural gas, it has started producing some serious effects on our environment. Rise in the number of vehicles and industries have badly affected the quality of air. Rise in amount of CO2 emissions leads to global warming. Melting of polar ice caps, changing climate patterns, rise in sea level are few of the consequences that we might we have to face due to environment pollution.

Overpopulation in developing countries puts a major strain on the resources it should be utilizing for development. Conflicts over water are becoming a source of tension between countries, which could result in wars. It causes more diseases to spread and makes them harder to control. Starvation is a huge issue facing the world and the mortality rate for children is being fuelled by it. Poverty is the biggest hallmark we see when talking about overpopulation. All of this will only become worse if solutions are not sought out for the factors affecting our population. We can no longer prevent it, but there are ways to control it.

When a country becomes overpopulated, it gives rise to unemployment as there fewer jobs to support large number of people. Rise in unemployment gives rise to crime as people will steal various items to feed their family and provide them basic amenities of life.

As difference between demand and supply continues to expand due to overpopulation, it raises the prices of various commodities including food, shelter and healthcare. This means that people have to pay more to survive and feed their families.

(Source: https://www.conserve-energy-future.com)

200 years ago there were less than one billion humans living on earth. Today, according to UN calculations there are over 7 billion of us. Recent estimates suggest that today’s population size is roughly equivalent to 6.9% of the total number of people ever born. This is the most conspicuous fact about world population growth: for thousands of years, the population grew only slowly but in recent centuries, it has jumped dramatically. Between 1900 and 2000, the increase in world population was three times greater than during the entire previous history of humanity—an increase from 1.5 to 6.1 billion in just 100 years.

How the world population is changing is of great importance for humanity’s impact on the Earth’s natural environment, but it also gives reasons to hope for a good future. This is because we have a bigger team of better educated people who can contribute to the solutions that improve global well-being.

A picture of the world population in the very long-run shows extremely rapid growth. Indeed, for a long time the world population grew at an increasing rate. However, if we focus on the last couple of decades, we see that this pattern no longer holds, as the annual rate of population growth has been recently going down. 1962 saw the growth rate peak at 2.1%, and it has since fallen to almost half. A long historical period of accelerated growth has thus come to an end.

Based on these observations, world history can be divided into three periods marked by distinct trends in population growth. The first period, pre-modernity, was a very long age of very slow population growth. The second period, beginning with the onset of modernity—which was characterized by rising standards of living and improving health—had an increasing growth rate that continued to rise through 1962. Today, the second period is over, and the third period is unfolding; the population growth rate is falling and will likely continue to fall, leading to an end of population growth towards the end of this century.

(Source: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth)

For nearly all of human history, there haven’t been that many of us. Around the year zero, Earth’s population is estimated to have been 190 million. A thousand years later, it was probably around 250 million. Then the Industrial Revolution happened, and human population went into overdrive. It took hundreds of thousands of years for humans to hit the 1 billion mark, in 1800. We added the next billion by 1928. In 1960, we hit 3 billion. In 1975, 4 billion.

That sounds like the route to an overpopulation apocalypse, right? To many midcentury demographers, futurists, and science fiction writers, it certainly predicted one. Extending the timeline, they saw a nightmarish future ahead for humanity: human civilizations constantly on the brink of starvation, desperately crowded under horrendous conditions, draconian population control laws imposed worldwide. Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich wrote in his best-selling book, “In the 1970’s, hundreds of millions of people will starve to death” because of overpopulation.

None of that ever came to pass. The world we live in now, despite approaching a population of nearly 8 billion, looks almost nothing like the one doomsayers were anticipating. Starting in the 19th century in Britain and reaching most of the world by the end of the 20th century, birthrates plummeted — mostly because of women’s education and access to contraception, not draconian population laws. In wealthy societies where women have opportunities outside the home, the average family size is small; in fact, it’s below replacement level. Called the demographic transition, it is one of the most important phenomena for understanding trends in global development.

There’s still significant debate among population researchers about the extent of the sea change in population trends. Researchers disagree on whether global populations are currently on track to start declining by midcentury. There’s also disagreement on what the ideal global population figure would be, or whether it’s morally acceptable to aim for such a figure. While academic research seeks to nail down these questions, it’s important to be clear what is consensus among researchers.

Our projections around population are used to make global health and development policy. They’re critical for planning, especially about climate change. Fears of overpopulation sometimes turn into hostility to immigrants, those who choose to have large families, and countries in an earlier stage of their population transition. Having an informed conversation about population is crucial if we are to get humanity’s future right.

(Source: https://www.vox.com/)

Spend just a minute watching the world population counter tick up on Worldometers and you’ll see just how quickly we’re swelling in numbers. The current figure stands at around 7.7 billion, and this is projected to become 9.8 billion by 2050, according to the UN.

More people means more carbon footprints - more cars, waste and emissions, more houses and infrastructure to be constructed using the world’s limited resources, more mouths to be fed using more water and energy in food production. Governments recognise the severity of the situation and have mostly come together over global policies like the UN’s Paris Agreement, to limit carbon emissions and their impact on climate change. In addition, new technologies are being developed to make our use of resources more efficient.

As for controlling population growth, the education of women is one key factor. Research shows the higher level to which a woman is educated, the fewer children she is likely to have. In Ghana, for example, women who have been to high school, have a fertility rate of between two and three children, compared with six for those who have no education. This could be for several reasons including learning about desired family size and understanding child health better. This means that the mother is more confident her children will survive. She is also likely to hold more sway within the family, arguing for fewer children if that is what she wants.

There is also plenty that individuals can do to reduce their personal footprint. Earth Overshoot Day is defined as the day when humanity has used up nature’s resource budget for the year. The Global Footprint Network calculates that moving Earth Overshoot day back by five days every year would mean that, by 2050, we’d be using the resources of less than one planet.

Just eating 50% less meat and replacing it with vegetarian alternatives could save the planet five days. As David Attenborough says, if we want to save Earth, we can no longer afford to keep eating meat: “We are omnivores, so biologically, if you could have a biological morality, you can say, yes we evolved to eat pretty well everything. But now we’ve got to a stage in our own social evolution in which that is no longer practical.” Sir David says he himself now eats less meat and is bolstered by the knowledge that it’s helping the planet.

(Source: https://www.weforum.org/)

Egypt’s 100 millionth citizen was born last week, undoubtedly a happy occasion for one family, but a moment filled with foreboding for a country struggling to contain a population explosion.

In the past year the government has scrambled to stem the birth rate with a new program called “Two is Enough.” It is establishing family planning clinics throughout the country, where Egyptians can purchase heavily subsidized contraceptives. But many doctors and activists fear that this is too little, and comes too late to reverse the uptick in population growth.

Doctors complain that the new “Two is Enough” program lacks in a clear strategy to bring down birthrates. The financial resources deployed thus far have been a fraction of previous efforts; some family-planning clinics have reportedly run out of contraceptives. While clinics funded by the campaign to provide some reproductive health education, sexual education remains taboo in Egyptian schools. There is also a lack of adequate services for the poor and pensioners. Many Egyptians opt to have more children in the hope they will look after them as they age, a phenomenon common in countries with high levels of poverty and inadequate safety nets. While over 30 million Egyptians live in poverty, only 9.4 million receive means-tested cash transfers from the government’s welfare programs. Economic reforms undertaken as part of a recently completed International Monetary Fund program have cut subsidies in a number of areas, contributing a spike in inflation that at one point exceeded 30%.

For newborns like the 100-millionth Egyptian, the outlook is grim. A burgeoning population exacerbates many problems. Despite Egypt’s limited supply - it depends almost exclusively on the Nile - there has been a systemic failure to adequately address water waste. From wasteful megaprojects draining the Nile to literally dumping waste in the river, Egyptian officials have consistently failed to prudently protect what is perhaps the country’s most vital natural resource. In 2018, Egypt temporarily reduced the farming of rice, a water intensive crop - only to expand cultivation the following year. The New Administrative Capital that Sisi has set out to erect is projected to need 650,000 cubic meters of water per day when finished. Failure to quickly and dramatically improve water management practices in Egypt could be disastrous, and the risk is the greater for the country’s rapid population growth.

(Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/)