Topic 24: Population

Population in the world is currently (2018) growing at a rate of around 1.09% per year (down from 1.12% in 2017 and 1.14% in 2016). The current average population increase is estimated (1)________83 million people per year.

Annual growth rate reached its (2)__________in the late 1960s, when it was at around 2%. The rate of increase has nearly halved since then, and will continue (3)_________in the coming years. It is estimated to reach 1% by 2023, less than 0.5% by 2052, and 0.25% in 2076 (a yearly addition of 27 million people to a population of 10.7 billion). In 2100, it should be only 0.09%, or an addition of only 10 million people to a total population of 11.2 billion.

World population will therefore continue to grow in the 21st century, but at a much slower rate (4)___________to the recent past. World population has doubled (100% increase) in 40 years from 1959 (3 billion) to 1999 (6 billion). It is now estimated that it will (5)_________another nearly 40 years to increase by another 50% to become 9 billion by 2037.

(Source: http://www.worldometers.info)

U.S. population could increase from 323 million in 2016 to as high as 447 million by 2060—or fall as low as 320 million. It depends on how many immigrants are admitted over the next four decades, according to new report from the Census Bureau.

According to the report, if current levels of immigration are maintained, the U.S. population will grow to 404 million by 2060. If immigration is cut in half, the population will rise to 376 million. If immigration increases by 50 percent, the population expands to 447 million. And if all immigration were to be halted now, the U.S. population would peak at around 332 million in 2035 and drop to 320 million in 2060. In the high-immigration scenario, the proportion of foreign-born residents would rise by 2060 to 21.6 percent of the population. If immigration is halted, the forecast shows only 4.6 percent of the population in 2060 being foreign-born. In all of the scenarios, the median age of the U.S. population rises from 37.9 to more than 40.

The report projects that the number of people identifying as “white alone”—that is, respondents who check only the white ethnicity box on census forms—will continue to rise in the main, high, and low immigration scenarios. This increase results from the Census Bureau’s expectation that the children of Hispanic immigrants will probably, like the children of Italian, Polish, Greek, and other earlier immigrant groups, choose to identify increasingly as white. But the share of the population in the white alone category will decline in each scenario, due to faster increases in the numbers of Americans in the other racial and ethnic groups. America is an ideal, not a tribe.

(Source: https://reason.com/2020/02/14/)

Ask about “the population problem” to people of a certain age, and the first and perhaps only thing that comes to mind is the “population bomb” or “population explosion.” And they would be right - for their time. In the second half of the 20th century, rapid population growth - especially but not exclusively in the developing countries - created unprecedented increases in the number of people on the earth. And this growth was accompanied by crowding, malnutrition, disease, and poverty. Indeed, for many Americans, the coming “population explosion” was, along with the Cold War, the most unsettling fact about our world.

But “population problems” have been part of American discourse for over 100 years. In the 1930s and 1940s, for instance, many observers feared that depopulation due to plummeting birth rates would cause chronic economic depression as the numbers of U.S. consumers and workers declined. In the 1920s, the U.S. “population problem” was rapid urbanization, reflected in a 1920 census count showing that for the first time more than one-half the population lived in urban areas. Rural incumbents in the House of Representatives, fearing they would be voted out of office by their new urban constituents, succeeded in blocking reapportionment of the House’s seats on the basis of the census counts as mandated by the U.S. Constitution.

The century’s first “population problem” was mass xenophobia about immigration. Beginning in 1880, wave after wave of European immigrants was creating congestion and social change at an unprecedented rate. In response to widespread anxiety and anger, Congress in 1924 passed the country’s most restrictive immigration legislation ever. Each problem was based in hard numbers. Each generated private emotions and public fears. Each suffered exaggeration and manipulation. And each commanded the attention of opinion leaders and elected officials.

(Source: https://www.prb.org/)

Vietnam’s population is ageing quickly. In 2017, more than 10 per cent of the population will be 60 and older, and in 15–20 years the elderly will account for one third of the total population. This raises concerns about healthcare, welfare and pensions for the elderly at a time when Vietnam is focusing on economic integration and requires a large labor force. So far two solutions have been proposed: to loosen the two-child policy and to increase the retirement age to 58 for women and 62 for men. By ending the two-child policy the government expects to make up for the ageing population within the next 20 years. But its effect could be creating an uncontrollable boom in the Vietnamese population. When the government loosened the two-child policy in 2015 in a trial period, in the first 6 months of 2016 the third child birth rate increased remarkably by 7.5 per cent.

Raising the retirement age has been proposed by the Ministry of Labor pending parliamentary evaluation in May 2017. While the policy is beneficial in utilizing the work experience of the elderly while creating savings in the pension budget, it also means fewer job prospects and promotion opportunities for younger generations. It is also not in the interest of all the elderly, especially the 70 per cent of Vietnam’s labor force working in manual labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and construction where working above the age of 50 can be dangerous and unproductive. Despite these drawbacks, raising the retirement age is still considered by policymakers as one of the key solutions to the ageing population problem in Vietnam. However, these are only temporary solutions.

(Adapted from http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/01/25/)